8/18/2023 0 Comments Covid totals by state![]() ![]() Mobility measures revealed stark changes in behaviour following the large-scale government interventions in the first stage of the epidemic, with individuals spending more time at home and correspondingly less time at work, at leisure centres, shopping, and on public transit 4, 5. We similarly seek to estimate the impact of NPIs on COVID-19 transmission, but through a semi-mechanistic Bayesian model that reflects the underlying process of disease transmission and relies on mobility data released by companies such as Google 4. 3 used an event-study model to determine that such NPIs were successful in reducing the growth rate of COVID-19 cases across US counties. In April 2020, the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the United States (US) surpassed that of Italy 2. Throughout March 2020, US state governments implemented a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and ensure the number of severe COVID-19 cases did not exceed the capacity of the health system. The first death caused by COVID-19 in the United States is currently believed to have occurred in Santa Clara County, California on the 6th February 1. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals. We also estimate that 3.7% of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We estimate that R t was only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. Nature Communications volume 11, Article number: 6189 ( 2020)Īs of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
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